Strategic Affairs

OSINT flight-tracking data reveals the largest surge of USAF strategic transport aircraft from Europe to CENTCOM bases in months. Three strike scenarios against Iran outlined as decision window narrows.

RSAF strikes Houthi military installations in western Yemen. Response to Red Sea shipping threats and naval blockade declaration.

Unprecedented barrage of Iskander, Zircon and Kalibr. Months of cheap Geran drones depleted air defence stocks; heavy-calibre strikes exploit the gap.

Tehran examining ground incursion targeting Camp Buehring, Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem. Former FM Mottaki: capture US soldiers as POWs. Analysts warn of de facto regional world war.

CENTCOM confirms new wave of strikes on surveillance facilities, underground depots and naval capabilities. Iran retaliates against bases in Kuwait and Jordan. Oil surges past $88/barrel.

CVN-72 has not made a port call since departing Guam on 12 December 2025. Carrier Strike Group 3 and Air Wing 9 have sustained continuous operations through Epic Fury and the Iran blockade — a record-

Three Saronic Corsair unmanned surface vessels hit Iran's Bandar Abbas Naval Base submarine and ship maintenance facility on 12 July — the first combat use of kamikaze drone boats by American forces.

Iran attacks Cyprus-flagged ship in Hormuz, strikes Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. US hits 140 Iranian targets including Kharg Island. Oman proposes dual-route management. New Supreme Leader Mojta

Ten F-22s from the 1st Fighter Wing land at RAF Fairford after five months at Ovda Air Base, Israel. Over 200 combat sorties suppressed S-300 and Bavar-373 batteries, struck IRGC command nodes and nuc

The US Navy's Strategic Systems Program issues a 22-area Sources Sought notice for technologies to protect SSBNs in port and in transit. Threats range from drone swarms and underwater UUVs to shore-la

Nine countries led by Canada created the Defence, Security & Resilience Bank — the first multilateral development bank for defence financing. Greece secured a founding seat with €100M capital. Athens gets rule-shaping power over lending, governance and strategic priorities.

US Central Command says American aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar in retaliation for the IRGC drone attack on the cargo ship Ever Lovely — the first US kinetic response since the MoU was signed. CENTCOM called the ship attack a clear ceasefire violation and a blow to freedom of navigation. Iranian state media said Hormuz would not return to its pre-war state and transit must follow Tehran's routes; the IRGC Navy claimed reprisal strikes on US targets without proof.

Just as traffic was resuming, an Iranian drone struck the Singapore-flagged cargo ship Ever Lovely near the Strait of Hormuz, and the UN's IMO paused its plan, built with Oman, to evacuate hundreds of vessels stranded in the Gulf. SecGen Dominguez held it pending safety guarantees on the Day of the Seafarer; the IRGC Navy enforced its own routes, turning ships back on the southern corridor once thought free of Iranian control — a reversal of the normalisation since the MoU.

At a United Russia congress before September's elections, Putin pledged to guarantee the country's security and meet every challenge — hours after Ukrainian drones set the Slavyansk refinery in Krasnodar ablaze. Crimea is under a state of emergency with fuel sales suspended; Kyiv's long-range sanctions target the energy revenue funding the war, and US-mediated talks remain stalled.

The US Air Force has asked industry for the Air Force Long Range Weapon (AFLRW): an air-to-air missile reaching at least 1,000 nautical miles — about 10x the AMRAAM — to kill AWACS, tankers and rear-area aircraft and pierce China's A2/AD. A classified industry day is set for Eglin AFB on 25-26 August; it only works inside a space-enabled kill web.

As Ukrainian drones reach deeper into the capital, Russia is craning Pantsir air-defence systems onto Moscow apartment rooftops by Mi-26. A defensive move — and a messaging one, letting the Kremlin frame strikes as hitting ‘residential areas’. The 18 June oil-tank blast was likely Russian friendly fire.

NATO's ACT and the NATO-Ukraine JATEC centre launch a €250,000 Airfield Denial Challenge — autonomous, EW-resilient, GPS-denied-capable systems (drones, loitering munitions, swarms) to persistently deny Russia its air bases. Deadline 20 July; pitch day 3 Sept in Poland.

For the first time, China's CCTV shows the hypersonic DF-17 in action during PLA drills in the Gobi — a Mach 5+ DF-ZF glide weapon, ~2,500 km, that maneuvers to evade defences. Seen publicly only in 2019 and 2025, its debut right after the G7 reads as a signal to Washington.

Direct-cycle nuclear turbojet · 4.3 MWth · >5 TBq radioactive exhaust per MW-hr · unlimited range. The first rigorous public analysis of Burevestnik.

25th Army in all districts. FAB-3000 destroyed last bridge. Garrison in 3 pockets. Slaviansk next.

Trump says a general's mud detour cost Russia the war. Analysts call it fiction. What he said, what the record shows, and why now.

~20 vessels from 15 nations — half of 2025. Ships at Hormuz, Arctic, US reductions. Haisch: Russia below Article 5.

600+ drones, Gazprom Neft hit for the second time in a week — 14 km from the Kremlin. Lavrov threatens massive retaliation.

Fighter jets cut by a third, carrier strike groups halved, zero US submarines offered. Europe has until 7-8 July to commit replacement capabilities.

Nine years, €3.2bn committed, zero aircraft built. Now Team Gen 6, GCAP or the F-35 are Germany's three paths — and Europe's air power future hangs on the choice.

Despite the ceasefire agreement, the US naval blockade of Iran will not lift until the MoU is signed in Geneva on Friday — as Hormuz de-mining continues and Iran plans transit fees post-deal.

The US naval blockade of Iran remains in full effect as of 15 June — two carrier strike groups and 20+ warships holding position pending the ceasefire signing in Geneva on Friday.

Overnight drone barrage strikes the \"Azot\" chemical plant in Tula and oil storage in Yaroslavl — 700+ km deep. Zelensky confirms. Third major deep strike this week.

The Strait of Hormuz was briefly declared closed after CENTCOM strikes and Iranian retaliation across three countries, before Washington and Tehran signalled a 14-point framework that could end the conflict within days.