Escalation Breaks the April Truce
The fragile ceasefire that has held since April 8, brokered with Pakistani mediation after the most intense phase of the Iran-US confrontation, came close to collapse this week. Both sides exchanged the heaviest fire since the truce began, before a rapid diplomatic turn appeared to pull the region back from the brink.
The immediate trigger was the downing of a U.S. Apache attack helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. In response, U.S. Central Command launched what it described as "self-defense strikes," a campaign reported in Iranian and regional media under the codename Operation Epic Wrath. The strikes targeted Iranian air defense systems, communications infrastructure, and surveillance positions across the country, following an explicit warning from President Trump that retaliation would be "very strong."
Retaliation Across Three Fronts
Tehran's response unfolded simultaneously across multiple fronts. According to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran fired twelve ballistic missiles at U.S. positions in Jordan, with at least two reportedly striking Muwaffaq Salti airbase, which hosts American F-35 and F-15 squadrons. Jordanian forces said their air defenses, including U.S.-supplied Patriot batteries, intercepted the incoming missiles.
A drone strike was also reported against the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. The IRGC claimed to have destroyed eighteen targets across two American airbases in Kuwait, in two separate waves of attacks.
The Strait of Hormuz Closure
Most consequentially, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to maritime traffic, warning that any vessel attempting passage would be considered a target. Tehran claimed, without independent confirmation, that two ships had already been struck.
The strait carries roughly one fifth of global oil shipments, and even a brief disruption carries the potential to send shockwaves through energy markets. CENTCOM disputed the scope of Iran's claims, stating that commercial traffic continued to move through the strait and denying that any U.S. naval vessels had been hit.
"We have a deal." — President Donald Trump, announcing the cancellation of a new round of planned strikes
A Sudden Reversal
The escalation appeared to be on the verge of widening further. Trump had reportedly authorised a new round of strikes against Iranian targets for the following night. Hours before they were due to launch, however, the president announced the operation had been called off.
What the Framework Includes
According to details that emerged through Iranian state media and were subsequently corroborated by U.S. and international outlets, the framework, described as a 14-point memorandum of understanding, includes a permanent ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon, a U.S. commitment of non-interference in Iran's internal affairs, the lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days, withdrawal of U.S. forces from the immediate region around Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian-managed arrangements. In exchange, Washington is reported to be offering phased sanctions relief tied to Iranian compliance, alongside the outline of a reconstruction package for Iran's economy reportedly valued near $300 billion.
An Uncertain Road Ahead
Officials on both sides cautioned that the document remains a preliminary framework rather than a signed agreement, with Iranian state media noting it "must be finalised through the relevant institutions." Trump suggested a formal signing could take place as early as this weekend in Europe, with Vice President Vance expected to attend.
The speed with which the confrontation escalated, from a single helicopter loss to strikes across four countries within 48 hours, illustrates how quickly the post-April equilibrium can unravel. Markets, regional governments, and Israel, whose position on the draft memorandum has not yet been made public, will be watching closely whether this framework holds where the April truce eventually frayed.